Decision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

TitleDecision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsAlemu, Eset T., Palmer Richard N., Polebitski Austin S., and Meaker Bruce
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume137
Pagination72
Date Published2011
Keywordsclimate science center, Decision support systems, forecast, Hydropower, Optimization, Reservoir operation, Simulation
Abstract

This paper investigates the value of ensemble streamflow predictions and energy price forecasts as aid to decision makers in scheduling the quantity and timing of reservoir releases for daily, weekly, and seasonal operations while meeting regulatory constraints. A decision support system (DSS) is described as it incorporates two integrated models of system operation: a simulation model that replicates general operating rules for the hydropower system and an optimization model that refines operations based upon forecasts of state variables. The DSS provides a series of recommendations for the quantity and timing of reservoir releases to optimize the economic value of the electrical energy produced, while balancing requirements and concerns related to flood control, environmental flows, and water supply. The DSS generates a range of optimal reservoir releases using an ensemble streamflow forecast and identifies robust operational solutions. The results indicate the value of the forecasts in improving system operation.