The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

TitleThe future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsMcCauley, Lisa A., Ribic Christine A., Pomara Lars Y., and Zuckerberg Benjamin
JournalLandscape Ecology
Volume32
Issue4
Pagination807 - 821
Date PublishedJan-30-2017
ISSN0921-2973
Keywordsclimate change vulnerability assessment, demographic modeling, grassland birds, nest success, poleward shift, precipitation, species distribution modeling
Abstract

 Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts. The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability. We conducted a demographic meta-analy- sis from published studies and quantified the relation- ship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate- demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model

 

URLhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-017-0487-x
DOI10.1007/s10980-017-0487-x
Short TitleLandscape Ecol