Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

TitleRevision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsDijak, William D., Hanberry Brice B., Fraser Jacob S., He Hong S., Wang Wen J., and Thompson Frank R.
JournalLandscape Ecology
Date PublishedDec-12-2017
ISSN0921-2973
KeywordsCentral hardwood region, climate change, Ecosystem modeling, LINKAGES
Abstract

 Context Global climate change impacts forest
growth and methods of modeling those impacts at
the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest
species composition change and abundance. Changes
in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes
and services such as succession and disturbance,
wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at
regional, landscape and global scales.
 Objectives LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create
LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species
growth potential and total biomass production under
alternative climate scenarios. This information is
needed to understand species potential under future
climate and to parameterize forest landscape models
(FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under
climate change.
 Methods We simulated total tree biomass and
responses of individual tree species in each of the 74
ecological subsections across the central hardwood
region of the United States under current climate and
projected climate at the end of the century from two
general circulation models and two representative
greenhouse gas concentration pathways.
 Results Forest composition and abundance varied by
ecological subsection with more dramatic changes
occurring with greater changes in temperature and
precipitation and on soils with lower water holding
capacity. Biomass production across the region followed
patterns of soil quality.
 Conclusions Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic
responses to soil and climate gradients and its
application was a useful approach for considering
growth potential and maximum growing space under
future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can
used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as
species establishment and maximum growing space.

URLhttp://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8.pdfhttp://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8.pdfhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8/fulltext.html
DOI10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8
Short TitleLandscape Ecol