Shifts in phenology, or the timing of recurring life events, have been described as a “fingerprint” of temporal and spatial responses by biodiversity to climate change impacts. Thus phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions. In this study we will investigate how the timing and occurrence of a suite of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological drivers. Using existing long-term historical data series, we will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological indicator has changed in a suite of marine mammals, sea turtles and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently cryptic and imperfectly detected, we will apply novel statistical approaches, namely dynamic occupancy models, to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. Lastly, we will synthesize regional information on a key prey species, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predators targeted in this study. Results will identify species that are relatively more or less adaptive and thus vulnerable to climate change, determine the likely primary drivers of those changes, as well as data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be useful to inform regional management and adaptation plans.
During this quarter, as in previous quarters, we have made great efforts to fit occupancy models to the North Atlantic right whale catalog data. Relative to the models used in previous quarters, we are using a more advanced formulation of the occupancy model. We expect to refine the model further in future quarters. We are beginning to experiment with applying the model in other habitats (e.g., Bay of Fundy) as described in our proposal, and we have begun to experiment with fitting the model on additional species, fin whales in Cape Cod Bay in particular.
- D. Pendleton presented plans and research complete date at the NE CSC Regional Science Meeting Incorporating Climate Science in the Management, May 15-17, 2017.
- D. Pendleton plans to present at the 2017 Right Whale Consortium meeting, October 2017.
- D. Pendleton plans to present at the Society for Marine Mammalogy Biennial conference, October, 2017.
- D. Pendleton will present at the American Museum of Natural History in the Fall of 2017.
- Michelle Staudinger, "The ecological role of sand lance in the Gulf of Maine through a climate change lens" at the Sand Lance in the Northeast Workshop Parker River NWR, Newburyport MA. May 8 & 9th, 2017
- Mila Calandrino (Umass) presented her honors thesis "Environmental and ecological factors affecting gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) and harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) haul-out behavior on Duck Island, ME" at the Umass Undergraduate Research Conference. April 28, 2017.
- On July 18 we held a one-day meeting at the New England Aquarium (NEAq) to discuss NOAA seal stranding data and Shoals Marine Lab harbor and grey seal data. Kate Jones presented her work on seal stranding data and Gabrielle Calandrino presented her work on SML seal data.
- On September 29, D. Pendleton participated in the New York regional Species Distribution Modeling group meeting at the American Museum of Natural History. He met with Morgan Tingley of the University of Connecticut and worked through the details of the [then] current occupancy model.
- Upcoming Lowell Lecture at the NEAq IMAX in November.
- Michelle Staudinger was invited to participate as a member of an Expert Working Group for NOAA’s Protected Species Climate Vulnerability Assessment that has developed assessment criteria and attributes for assessing 90 marine mammal stocks located in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico as well as all global sea turtle populations.
- As a result of Mendy Garron's participation in our seal meeting at NEAq in July, and her ongoing involvement in our project, we are better able to focus our seal stranding research on issues that will improve NOAA's to response to seal stranding events.