Project Leader:
Research Partners:
Michael RawlinsProject Fellows:
Status:
CompletedScience Themes:
General circulation models and high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are being used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. We are interested in the timing of changes regionally, as compared to the changes occcurring nationally and globally, and the patterns of key parameters that are of relevance to natural systems (frost occcurrence, snow cover, drought, fire hazard conditions, etc). We are also assessing the consistency of climate models in simulating recent climate changes, in order to improve confidence in future scenarios.
Tools and Products
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Climate System Research Center https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/stateclimatereports.html A website built to provide an assessment of how will the climate of a given state change by the time the annual mean global temperature set levels |
Publications:
- Kirchhoff, C.J., J.J. Barsugli, G.L. Galford, A.V. Karmalkar, K. Lombardo, S. Stephenson, M. Barlow, A. Seth, G. Wang, and A. Frank, 2019: Climate assessments for local action. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0138.1
- Karmalkar, A.V., Thibeault, J.M., Bryan, A.M. et al. Climatic Change (2019). Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States. doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y.
- Karmalkar, A., 2018: Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0127.1
- Karmalkar AV, Bradley R.S. 2017. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States. PLoS ONE 12(1): e0168697.
- Rawlins, M.A., R.S. Bradley, H.F. Diaz, J.S. Kimball and D.A. Robinson, 2016. Future decreases in freezing days across North America. J. Climate DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0802.1
- Ning, L., R.S. Bradley. Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios. Scientific Reports, 2015.
- Karmalkar, A., R.S. Bradley, Contributions to the report: Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans (2015) (chapter on Regional Climate Changes)
- Cook, T. L., B. C. Yellen, J. D. Woodruff, and D. Miller. 2015. Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6680–6687
- Fan, F., R.S. Bradley, M. A. Rawlins. 2015. Climate Change in the Northeast United States: An Analysis of the NARCCAP Multimodel Simulation. J. Geophysical Research-Atmospheres.
- Fan, F.X., R.S. Bradley and M.A. Rawlins. 2014. Climate change in the northeastern U.S.: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Climate Dynamics 43, 145-161.
Presentations:
- Karmalkar, A et al: Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections; AGU Annual meeting, New Orleans, Dec 2017.
- A Case Study with Maple Syrup Production: A.M. Bryan, E. Kearney, J.M. Rapp, A. Karmalkar, T.L. Morelli, AGU Fall Meeting 2016, San Fancisco. Dec 2016
- Bradley, R.S., When Does Choice of Downscaling Method Matter in Decision Making? , MA State House Forum on Climate Change & Resiliency, Boston: March 25, 2015
- Karmalkar, A., Global warming, Water Supply Citizens Advisory Committee (WSCAC) to Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) meeting in Southborough, MA: May 12, 2015
- Karmalkar, A., Climate Change and Wetlands panel at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, RI: May 31-June 4, 2015
Engagement:
NE CASC News
- Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections Nov. 9, 2018
- New Study Points to Sharp Decline in Sub-Freezing Days September 16, 2016
- State-level Climate Projections, April 20, 2016
- Report: State Summaries of regional consequences of a 2 degree celsius global mean temperature rise
Webinars
- Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", Climate Resiliency Symposium, UMass Amherst. Apr 18, 2018
- Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", NE CASC Webinar, UMass Amherst. Mar 28, 2018
- Karmalkar, A., Framework for selecting climate models for impact studies in the Northeast, NE CSC Webinar Series, UMass Amherst, Nov 16, 2016