Using agent-based models to identify conservation solutions to large scale environmental variation and climate change

Project Leader: 
Research Partners: 
Dylan Kesler (Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri); Elisabeth Webb (USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit)
Project Fellows: 
Status: 
Ongoing
Science Themes: 
Ecological vulnerability and species response to climate variability and change
Climate impacts on land-use and land-cover change

Effective migratory bird management and conservation requires an integrate approach at multiple spatial and temporal scales.  We are developing a spatially explicit agent-based model for dabbling ducks during spring migration. We are modeling foraging and resting behavior at prominent spring migration stopover sites throughout the midcontinent region.  Emergent properties of the working model include spring migration stopover duration, movement distances and survival.  We will use the model to evaluate alternative land-use change and management scenarios to evaluate the effects of environmental variation on dabbling duck spring migration stopover duration and survival.

The agent-based model has been developed and is currently being evaluated and validated using emergent properties, including stopover duration, survival and movement distances.  We have performed 7 different analyses encompassing approximately 3,000 individual simulations.  The final 2 analyses that include approximately 1000 simulations are presently being conducted.

The project addresses migration chronology, habitat use, anthropogenic influences and other limiting factors on waterfowl populations during the non-breeding period.
 
Publications: 
Presentations: 
  • Beatty, W.S., E.B. Webb, D.C. Kesler, A.H. Raedeke, L.W. Naylor, D.D. Humburg, G.J. Soulliere and J. Coluccy. Effects of landscape energetics on mallard and American black duck movements. The Wildlife Society Annual Conference, Pittsburgh, PA. October 2014.
  • Effects of landscape energetics on mallard and American black duck movement, The Wildlife Society, Oct 25 - 30, 2014.
Other: 
  • In review: W.S. Beatty, D.C. Kesler, E.B. Webb, L.W. Naylor, A.H. Raedeke, D.D. Humburg, J.M. Coluccy, and G.J. Soulliere. How will predicted land use change affect waterfowl spring migration stopover ecology? Inferences from an agent-based model .