The Practitioner’s Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections

TitleThe Practitioner’s Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsBarsugli, Joseph J., Guentchev Galina, Horton Radley M., Wood Andrew, Mearns Linda O., Liang Xin-Zhong, Winkler Julie A., Dixon Keith, Hayhoe Katharine, Rood Richard B., Goddard Lisa, Ray Andrea, Buja Lawrence, and Ammann Caspar
JournalEos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
Volume94
Issue46
Pagination424 - 425
Date Published11/2013
Keywordsclimate variability and change, credibility, downscaled projections, quantitative evaluation
Abstract

Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.

DOI10.1002/2013EO460005