Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP3 data, we are developing a range of projections for the Eastern U.S. We are also developing extreme event projections for stakeholder-relevant metrics (e.g., days over 90 °F, days below 32 °F, and days with over 1 inch of precipitation) based on CMIP5 models and North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dynamical downscaling. We are also evaluating the performance of these models over historical time periods. Current research thrusts include emphasis on extreme heat stress (heat plus humidity) events and the relationship between extreme minimum temperatures and Southern Pine Beetle range expansion in the Northeast U.S.
We are finding that small changes in average conditions are associate with large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. We are also finding large biases in the NARRCAP regional climate model simulations of historical conditions.
This project will provide ensemble-based climate change projections with uncertainty for various climate impacts research.
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Li, T., R.M. Horton, and P. Kinney, 2013: Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nature Climate Change, 5. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1902
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Ahmed, K.F., G. Wang, J. Silander, A.M. Wilson, J.M. Allen, R. Horton, and R. Anyah, 2013: Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the U.S. Northeast. Glob. Planet. Change, 100, 320-332, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.003.
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Petkova, Elisaveta, Horton Radley, Bader Daniel, and Kinney/ijerph10126734 Patrick "Projected Heat-Related Mortality in the US Urban Northeast." International journal of environmental research and public health 10.12 (2013): 6734-6747, doi:10.3390
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Horton, R. M., & Liu, J. (2014). Beyond Hurricane Sandy: What Might the Future Hold for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic?. Journal of Extreme Events.
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Horton, R., Bader, D., Kushnir, Y., Little, C., Blake, R., & Rosenzweig, C. (2015). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 ReportChapter 1: Climate Observations and Projections. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1336(1), 18-35.
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Horton, R. M., Coffel, E. D., Winter, J. M., & Bader, D. A. (2015). Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite. Geophysical Research Letters.
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"Extreme Temperatures and their Mechanisms in NARCCAP Simulations" presentation on dynamical downscaling work given at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting in San Francisco in December 2012.
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Meetings: Climate Science Day, Washington, DC, February 2013, J. Winter
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North Atlantic LCC webinar, August 7, 2014
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Presentation By R. Horton on combined effects of high temperatures and high humidity in the Northeast US at American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, at 5pm on December 19th, 2014.
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Ethan Coffel, "Global exposure to heat stress in the 21st century." American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, December 14-18, 2015.
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Ethan Coffel, "Economic impacts of more frequent weight restriction on the aviation industry." American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana. January 10-14, 2016.
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Product: Draft Climate Risk information reports for New York City and New York State
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Product: Ethan Coffel completed his Master's research
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In review: Coffel, E.D., R.M. Horton, A. De Sherbiniin, "Rapid rise in heat stress exposure during the 21st century". Submitted to Climatic Change Letters.