Effects of climate on wildlife demographics and population viability

Project Leader: 
Research Partners: 
John Faaborg (Division of Biological Sciences, University of Missouri); Josh Millspaugh, Professor, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, University of Missouri.
Project Fellows: 
Status: 
Ongoing
Science Themes: 
Ecological vulnerability and species response to climate variability and change
Decision frameworks for evaluating risk and managing natural resources under climate change

We are investigating the effects of climate on multiple aspects of bird demography, including nest success, per nest productivity, juvenile survival, adult survival, and species viability.  We are using a long term data set on bird nesting success and new and existing data on juvenile and adult survival to discover climate effects on productivity and we are developing modeling approaches to predict regional species viability. This work discovers direct and indirect effects of climate on bird demographics to infom vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

We are actively working with the Gulf Coast Plains and Ozarks LCC and the Central Hardwoods All Bird Joint Venture to ensure our results are useful for conservation planning in the region. Our results will be used to guide climate adaptation planning and management across the region.

Publications: 
Presentations: 
  • Bonnot, T.W., Cox, W.A., Thompson, F.R., Millspaugh, J.J., 2019. Climate Change Threatens a Songbird Population Through Its Impacts on Breeding. Meeting of the American Ornithological Society, Anchorage, AK. June 24-28, 2019
  • Bonnot, T.W., F. R. Thompson III, D. Todd Jones-Farrand.  Invited Symposium.  Engaging partners through a decision support framework to accomplish landscape conservation design in the Ozark highlands.  24th  Annual Wildlife Society Conference, Albuquerque, New Mexico. September 25, 2017
  • Bonnot, T.W., W.A. Cox, F. R. Thompson III, J. J. Millspaugh.  Combining individual-based and dynamic-landscape metapopulation models to identify climate change threat to a regional songbird population.  24th Annual Wildlife Society Conference, Albuquerque, New Mexico.  September 24, 2017
  • Thompson, F.R., The importance of regional and landscape context and climate change to northern bobwhite management.  Eighth National Quail Symposium, Knoxville, TN July 25-28, 2017
  • Bonnot, T.W., Application of landscape and wildlife models in a structured decision framework for landscape conservation design in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Northeast Climate Science Center's Regional Science Meeting, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. May 15-17, 2017 
  • Bonnot, T.W., Karmalkar, A.. Planning Under Uncertainty. Northeast Climate Science Center's Regional Science Meeting, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. May 15-17, 2017 
  • Bonnot, T.W., Thompson FR, Millspaugh J. 2016. Conservation decisions for multiple species with multiple uncertainties. North American Ornithological Conference, Washington DC, August 16-20, 2016.
  • Thompson, F.R., 2016. Monioring and predicting bird response to pine woodland restoration and climate change. Shortleaf Pine Restoration Inititative Meeting. West Plains, MO, August 24-25, 2016.
  • Bonnot T.W., Thompson FR, Millspaugh J.  2016.  Guiding regional conservation planning under climate change; integrating dynamic landscape models with structured decision making.  Gulf Coast Plains and Ozarks LCC Webinar, July 20, 2016.
  • Bonnot, T.W., Ozark Highlands Structured Decision Making Workshop II. Branson MO, June 7-8, 2016.
  • Connette, G.M., Peak, R., Thompson III, F.R..  Accounting for dispersal and habitat use when estimating survival of a migrant songbird.  Ecological Society of America, Baltimore, August 2015.
  • Bonnot, T., and T. Jones- Farrand. Ozark Highlands Structured Decision Making Workshop for Guiding Conservation Under Climate Change. Prarie Grove Battlefield State Park, AR. March 31, 2015
  • Bonnot, T.W.  Webinar Presentation to the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC. February 2015.
  • Bonnot, T.W., Thompson, F.R., Millspagh, J.. 2014.  Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Landscapes and Populations.  National Workshop on Large Landscape Conservation. Washington, DC. October 23-24, 2014
  • Cox, A.S., W. A. Cox, and Thompson, F.R., III.  2013. Factors affecting post-fledging survival in passerine birds and the value of post-fledging studies to conservation. Presentation at the Annual meeting of the American Ornithologists Union and Cooper Ornithological Society.  August 2013, Chicago, IL.
  • F. R. Thompson, W. A. Cox, J. L. Reidy.  2013  The effects of temperature on nest predation by mammals, birds, and snakes.  Presentation at the Annual meeting of the American Ornithologists Union and Cooper Ornithological Society.  August 2013, Chicago, IL.  
  • Bonnot, T.W., Thompson, F.R., III, Millspaugh, J., Jones-Farrand, D. Todd.  2012.  Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds.  5th North American Ornithological Conference;  2012 August 14-18, Vancouver, BC.
  • Cox, W.A., F.R. Thompson III, J. Reidy, and J. Faaborg. High temperatures reduce productivity in high quality habitat. 5th North American Ornithological Conference, Vancouver, Canada. August 2012.
Engagement: 
  • Bonnot, T. W. 2017.  The science behind climate change.  Advertised public outreach, Ashland, Missouri.  March 6, 2017.
  • Hosted Grassland Full Annual Cycle Project Workshop 5-7 January 2020 in Columbia MO. Designing a multi-region grassland bird study to understand climate and landscape effects on range-wide populations. University of Tennesee, USFWS.
  • Appointed as an external partner on Missouri Department of Conservation task force for climate vulnerability and resiliency(April 17, 2020)