We are identifying historical relationships between climate extremes and species abundance, and then developing downscaled climate projections for the extreme climate metric. This information is then used to provide an initial projection of how the species abundance and location may change in the future. These initial assessments can help inform future assessments that consider broader types of climate and ecological information.
This prorovides information on how key species may change in the future, to help inform natural resource management.
The Southern Pine Beetle, an important forest pest, is projected to advance into New England and Canada in the coming decades, provided that it encounters accomodating host tree species.
- Lesk, C., E. Coffel, R.M. Horton, T. D’Amato, and K. Dodds (2017) Significant threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with warming winters. In review with Nature Climate Change, August 2017.
- Significant threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with warming winters, AGU Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 14th, 2016.
- Potential Impacts of Projected Changes in Climatic Suitability for Southern Pine Beetle in Northeast US Forests. First Annual Northeast Regional Invasive Species Climate Change (RISCC) Management Symposium, July 27-28, 2017.
- Radley Horton, "Projected expansion of the Southern Pine Beetle into northern forests" NE CSC Webinar, UMass Amherst, November 30, 2016.
- Significant threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with warming winters, Risk of Invasive Species and Climate Change Workshop, Amherst MA, July 27, 2017.
- Workshop: Climate Change and Land Conservation and Restoration: Advances in Economics Methods and Policies for Adaptation and Mitigation, Hosted by The Northeast Agricultural and Resource Economics Association (NAREA), June 13-14, 2017, Washington, D.C.