Multi-model regional model simulations for future climate scenarios

Project Leader: 
Research Partners: 
Michael Rawlins
Project Fellows: 
Science Themes: 

General circulation models and high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are being used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US.  We are interested in the timing of changes regionally, as compared to the changes occcurring nationally and globally, and the patterns of key parameters that are of relevance to natural systems (frost occcurrence, snow cover, drought, fire hazard conditions, etc).  We are also assessing the consistency of climate models in simulating recent climate changes, in order to improve confidence in future scenarios.

Tools and Products

Climate System Research Center 

A website built to provide an assessment of how will the climate of a given state change by the time the annual mean global temperature set levels

  • Karmalkar, A et al:  Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections; AGU Annual meeting, New Orleans, Dec 2017.
  • A Case Study with Maple Syrup Production: A.M. Bryan, E. Kearney, J.M. Rapp, A. Karmalkar, T.L. Morelli, AGU Fall Meeting 2016, San Fancisco. Dec 2016
  • Bradley, R.S., When Does Choice of Downscaling Method Matter in Decision Making? , MA State House Forum on Climate Change & Resiliency, Boston: March 25, 2015
  • Karmalkar, A., Global warming, Water Supply Citizens Advisory Committee (WSCAC) to Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) meeting in Southborough, MA: May 12, 2015
  • Karmalkar, A., Climate Change and Wetlands panel at the Annual Meeting 2015 of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, RI: May 31-June 4, 2015



  • Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", Climate Resiliency Symposium, UMass Amherst. Apr 18, 2018  ​
  • Bradley, R.S., "Climate change projections for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts", NE CASC Webinar, UMass Amherst. Mar 28, 2018
  • Karmalkar, A., Framework for selecting climate models for impact studies in the Northeast, NE CSC Webinar Series, UMass Amherst, Nov 16, 2016